After mini-boom, weekly mortgage refinance demand falls back 15%. Here’s why.

Mortgage rates fell for the third week in a row last week, but the rush to refinance took a breather.

Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 15% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Volume was, however, 90% higher than the same week one year ago. That is likely due to the 23% surge in demand over the past four weeks, as mortgage rates fell.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.50% from 6.54%, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.57 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

The 30-year fixed rate has fallen 32 basis points in the past four weeks and is 81 basis points lower than it was a year ago. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

“Both mortgage rates and mortgage applications have now stabilized after a few weeks of financial market volatility, which led to a quick drop in mortgage rates,” wrote Joel Kan, an MBA economist, in a release. “The other point to note is that yes rates are lower, but they’re still 6.5%, which is not low for those borrowers out there with sub five rates.”

The vast majority of borrowers today have rates well below 5%, as rates dropped below 3% in the first two years of the Covid pandemic.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 5% for the week and were 8% lower than the same week one year ago. Demand is now at the lowest level since February. Homebuyers are not as influenced by the recent drop in rates because they are still struggling to afford what little is available for sale. Home prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than in the past few years, but more supply is coming on the market.

“Even with lower mortgage rates, potential buyers might be more selective now that there are more options,” added Kan.

Mortgage rates declined further to start this week, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily.

“The lowest rates in just over 2 weeks might seem like it’s worth more enthusiasm, but we didn’t learn anything new about the current trends that we didn’t know yesterday,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “Simply put, there was a ton of rate volatility earlier in the month, and we’ve been in a slow, largely sideways grind since then as we wait for more compelling motivations.”