An Israel-Hezbollah war would be devastating to both sides

The most extreme war scenario? Tricaud describes a large-scale ground invasion and aerial bombing campaign against Lebanon by Israel, heavy bombardment by Hezbollah with regular direct hits on Israeli civilian infrastructure, and potentially even the direct involvement of Iran, which would have major implications for the global economy.

A conflict of this magnitude would see national infrastructure on both sides — like water, electricity and communications — heavily damaged or destroyed, along with homes and military targets.

But for now, this remains a “comparatively distant scenario,” Tricaud said, “with many escalatory steps likely to take place before the confrontation reaches such a level of intensity.” 

Leaders on both sides say they do not want all-out war. Their tit-for-tat strikes over the last several months, while at times lethal, are still broadly viewed as being carefully calculated to avoid major escalation.

Lebanon, meanwhile, is in the midst of an economic and political crisis, its infrastructure wholly unprepared for a new war. A major Israeli incursion into the country would be catastrophic, particularly in Lebanon’s south – a key Hezbollah stronghold – posing a serious threat to the militant organization’s popularity and support there. 

“Today, each side presumes to ‘teach’ the other that it can inflict greater pain within the assumed rules of engagement of a limited fight,” said Nimrod Novik, a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, which is dedicated to advancing a two-state outcome to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“However, it only takes a single stray rocket causing significant casualties and the adversary retaliating in kind, for things to get out of control.”

Hezbollah is considered to be among the most heavily armed nonstate groups in the world. It’s estimated to have 10 times the military capability of Hamas, and most previous wars between Israel and Hezbollah have ended without a clear victory for either side. 

The outcome of a 34-day war between the two adversaries in 2006, however, which saw Israeli ground troops fighting in Lebanon, was claimed as a victory by Hezbollah, and was seen as a strategic failure in Israel. The militant group is now significantly stronger and equipped with more advanced weapons than it was in 2006.  

Tricaud said Hezbollah combatants have become “increasingly battle-hardened, having taken part in the war in Syria, and will be able to leverage asymmetric warfare tactics very effectively thanks to the movement’s long-standing territorial control of southern Lebanon.”

He added that the toll of a full-scale war on the Israeli population “would be far higher than it was in 2006.”

Retired Israel Defense Forces Col. Miri Eisin, who currently directs the International Institute for Counterterrorism in Israel, illustrated the threat of Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal in the event of a full war. 

“We’re talking about weaponry that we have not seen in this area,” she said, describing Hezbollah’s potential use of mortars, rockets, guided missiles, drone swarms, suicide drones and even ground troops to dismantle Israel’s defenses. 

Simultaneously, “Israel will attack an immense amount of Hezbollah targets,” Eisin said. “And Hezbollah has surface-to-air missiles that they’ve used very little and they have them both from Iran and from Russia.”