Apple CEO Tim Cook holds up a new iPhone 17 Pro during an Apple special event at Apple headquarters on September 09, 2025 in Cupertino, California.
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Apple is set to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, the first time it will have done so in 14 years, Counterpoint Research said in a note on Wednesday.
Apple will ship around 243 million iPhone units this year versus 235 million shipments from Samsung, Counterpoint told CNBC. Apple is likely to end up with a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market while Samsung’s share will be 18.7%.
Shipments refer to the number of devices vendors ship to retail channels and do not directly equal sales. However, they provide insights into demand and expectations of sales from smartphone makers.
Apple’s success is being driven by its iPhone 17 series launched in September, which, according to Counterpoint, had a “bumper” holiday sales season.
Sales of the iPhone 17 series in the U.S. — including the iPhone Air — during the first four weeks after launch was 12% higher than that of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e, the research firm said. In China, a critical market for Apple, sales of the iPhone 17 series during the same period were 18% higher than its predecessor.
“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang, said in the note.
Samsung meanwhile, could face challenges in the low-to-mid tier of the smartphone market from Chinese players, which could hamper the South Korean giant’s ability to reclaim the top spot, Counterpoint said.
Apple longer-term boost
Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple will hold the top spot in the global smartphone market through 2029. The analysts laid out a few reasons why.
Firstly, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025.
“These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” Counterpoint Research said.
Apple benefited from a lower-than-expected impact from tariffs given the trade truce between the U.S. and China. This helped Apple’s broader supply chain and growth in certain regions, such as emerging markets. The tech giant also benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar and a “resilient economic outlook” that boosted consumer confidence.
“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.
Meanwhile, Apple is expected to launch the entry level iPhone 17e next year as well as a foldable smartphone, Counterpoint forecast. The research firm said it expects the previously-announced improvements to Apple’s virtual assistant Siri as well as a “major iPhone design revamp” in 2027, to also underpin Apple’s dominance over the next few years.
“By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing “e” series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, and to strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market,” Counterpoint said.
“Given an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and a substantial number of older models within Apple’s installed base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade.”
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