A new NATO artificial intelligence model gives Ukraine’s forces a frontline map of where Russian drone activity is expected the next day, per the alliance’s innovation center.
The system, called Initiative 13 or Model 13, “turns an array of disparate data into a clear map of expected activity” for commanders to plan their next day of operations, a spokesperson for NATO’s Joint Analysis, Training, and Education Center, or JATEC, told Business Insider.
Business Insider reported on Ukraine’s announcement of the program earlier this month, but JATEC is now providing new details on how it works.
Initiative 13 covers areas 5 to 50 km, or roughly 3 to 31 miles, of Ukrainian territory behind the line of contact, and divides that space into geographical cells, per JATEC.
“For each cell, the system determines the expected intensity of strike and reconnaissance activity of UAVs, the level of threat, the trend of its change, and the range of possible values,” its spokesperson said.
The map shows a forecast for the next day, helping commanders to highlight risk areas so they can better deploy their forces and equipment, they said.
They added that the AI model is trained on battlefield data and considers previous Russian drone activity, what types of drones were used, when and how they were deployed, weather conditions, terrain, and distance to the line of contact.
“Initiative 13 does not replace data from the current situation and commander’s decisions,” the JATEC spokesperson added. JATEC is NATO’s joint organization with Ukraine, based in Poland, that aims to glean lessons and innovations from the war.
Ukraine’s defense ministry said in mid-October that Initiative 13, which it called Model 13, was “ready for integration into the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s situational awareness systems.”
The AI model, it said, could predict Russia’s drone strikes with “high probability.”
Kyiv’s forces use a battlespace management system called Delta, which feeds data from the front lines onto an interactive map that commanders can access via laptop, phone, or tablet.
The drone-predicting AI was developed by Ukraine’s forces and NATO’s Allied Command Transformation, with support from JATEC.
Ukraine’s defense ministry said in its initial announcement that another AI model, dubbed No. 32, for planning artillery deployments was also in the works but is still in prototype stages.
Artificial intelligence has increasingly been making its way into Ukraine’s war, from helping mid-range attack drones identify and strike targets to sending uncrewed ground vehicles to autonomously complete supply runs.
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