Putin heads to Beijing days after Trump in test of China’s direction

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to arrive in Beijing on Tuesday for a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, visiting an ally that barely had time to clear the ceremonial trappings it laid out for U.S. President Donald Trump just days earlier.

The summit, scheduled for May 19-20, marks the second time the Chinese and Russian leaders have met in the past year, as Beijing seeks to manage ties with Washington and Moscow while positioning itself as a pivotal power in global diplomacy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 left Moscow effectively isolated and heavily reliant on Beijing for trade under Western sanctions.

“We have very serious expectations for this visit,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Monday, describing the agenda as advancing the two countries’ “privileged and strategic partnership.”

The U.S. has long pressed Beijing to reduce economic support for Moscow that Western officials say helps sustain Russia’s military capacity. NATO labeled China a “decisive enabler” of the Ukraine war, citing Chinese firms’ supply of dual-use goods used to replenish Russian munitions.

Moscow slashed its growth forecast for this year to 0.4% from 1.3% as its economy reels from Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure and export terminals that underpin Russian war financing and the uncertainty over the future of U.S. sanctions waivers.

Putin will seek reassurance that any improvement in China’s ties with Washington will not alter the “strategic triangle” that keeps China and Russia closer than either is with the U.S., said Dennis Wilder, a former U.S. intelligence official and professor at Georgetown University.

Trump’s visit last week featured a lavish state banquet and yielded several deliverables, including $17 billion in annual agricultural purchases through 2028, a 200-aircraft Boeing order, and a September meeting by the Chinese leader in Washington.

Putin’s visit, by contrast, is expected to be more practical as part of routine dealings between the two countries, Tursa said. But the size and composition of the Russian delegation suggest Putin hopes to expand bilateral cooperation across multiple areas, he added.

Chinese state media embraced the optics of back-to-back visits regardless. The Global Times described the sequencing as evidence that Beijing is “fast emerging as the focal point of global diplomacy,” noting that hosting leaders of both the U.S. and Russia within a week was “extremely rare in the post-Cold War era.”

Washington is likely to closely monitor what emerges.

“If there’s significant assistance from China to Russia, the U.S. will probably complain about it,” Kurt Tong, managing partner at The Asia Group, said on CNBC’s The China Connection on Monday.

Energy is expected to dominate the agenda. China has become Moscow’s largest buyer of oil and gas, purchasing Russian supplies at steep discounts as demand from Europe collapsed to their lowest since the mid-1970s.

With the Strait of Hormuz closure elevating energy security concerns across Asia, Beijing has fresh incentive to lock in Russian supply, while Moscow needs the revenue to sustain its economy.

Putin signaled last week that Russia is close to a “serious” gas and oil deal with China. “We are at a very advanced stage of agreement on making a serious, very substantial step forward in the gas and oil sector,” Putin said during a press conference, adding that “if it proves possible to finalize them and put the finishing touch during the visit (to China), I will be very pleased.”

Chinese investment into Russia’s state sector is also expected to be on the table, analysts say. Bilateral trade has surged to record levels since 2022, with China absorbing more than a quarter of Russia’s exports.