The Apple logo, taken at the Apple Store on 5th Avenue in Manhattan.
Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Wall Street is gearing up for Apple’s third-quarter results after the bell, and users on prediction platform Kalshi are betting on what will be discussed on the iPhone maker’s upcoming earnings call.
By the afternoon on Thursday, Kalshi was pricing in a probability of about 90% that Apple was going to mention words like “China” and “Tariff” during the call, while the mention of “Severance” was being priced in at more than 50%.
Betting on this question has brought in more than $48,000 in trading volumes.
Apple has come under pressure to boost domestic manufacturing in recent months. In May, President Donald Trump said that Apple would have to pay a tariff of 25% or more for its iPhones not made in the U.S.
The company has since made efforts to relieve some of that pressure, announcing earlier this week that it’s going to open a manufacturing academy in downtown Detroit next month, where it plans to offer manufacturing and artificial intelligence workshops to small and medium-sized businesses.
But analysts have said that U.S.-made iPhones would make the device much more costly, as some estimates have put its price in a range of $1,500 to $3,500. The company mainly manufactures most of its iPhones in China but has expanded its production to India amid the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs.
The move has evidently been taking hold, as a report released this week showed that India surpassed China in smartphone exports during the second quarter.
Heading into its print, Barclays analyst Tim Long forecasts that iPhones will “struggle” due to a “rough” macroeconomic backdrop, a lack of new product and feature traction, as well as market share losses in China.
“According to Apple, the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. are expected to have India as their country of origin for the June-Q, and almost all iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods sold in the U.S. are expected to ship from Vietnam for the Q,” he wrote. “We expect AAPL could adopt other mitigation efforts … before it would turn to pricing actions, which we would expect to erode demand.”
Alongside commentary related to China tariffs, Kalshi users are expecting some discussion of the most-watched series on Apple TV+, “Severance,” which saw a boost in popularity with the premiere of its second season earlier this year.
It was officially renewed for a third season shortly after its season two finale aired in March.
Other words in the entertainment industry like “Formula 1/F1” stood at 88% odds among users. “F1: The Movie” generated more than $293 million globally just days after its release, becoming Apple’s highest-grossing theatrical film.
Apple vs. S&P 500, year-to-date
Apple shares were near the flatline in afternoon trading Thursday. That put its year-to-date fall at more than 16%, lagging the S&P 500’s rise in the period of more than 8%.
The company’s third-quarter earnings call is slated for 5 p.m. ET Thursday following the release of its quarterly results. Analysts surveyed by LSEG are expecting that Apple will see a single-digit-percentage increase in earnings and revenue for the quarter compared to the prior-year period.
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