10-year Treasury yield closes out 2025 lower for year

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved higher on Wednesday, yet ended 2025 lower amid Federal Reserve rate cuts and sticky-but-trending-lower inflation.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose more than 3 basis points to 4.163%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also last seen more than 2 basis points higher at 3.475%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.

Yields reversed course and moved higher after initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 27 came in at 199,000, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. That’s down 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level of 215,000 and below the 220,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had estimated.

“The filings for first-time jobless benefits are volatile during the holidays and adverse winter weather in many years, but the lack or any material weakness in the jobs market is striking in that there is no sign the economy is anywhere near the shores of recession,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“The labor market strength with low-firing definitely, low-hiring maybe, is likely to carry forward into 2026 because so far, the Trump economic agenda with its radical changes to trade and immigration policy, along with the firing of thousands of Federal government workers, has not sent the economy off the rails as many economists forecast,” he added.

The swing upward in yields following the report captures what has been another choppy year for the bond market, spurred by factors such as uncertainty surrounding the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.