U.S. President Donald Trump‘s warning that a U.S. “armada” is heading toward Iran has deepened concern of potential military action in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher amid fears of supply disruption.
“We’re watching Iran,” Trump told reporters Thursday on Air Force One. “You know we have a lot of ships going in that direction just in case. We have a big flotilla going in that direction and we’ll see what happens.”
The U.S. president also repeated his push for Tehran not to restart its nuclear program, echoing comments made to CNBC at the World Economic Forum earlier in the week.
Oil prices, which fell around 2% in the previous session, were trading higher Friday morning.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with March delivery rose 1.8% to $65.20 per barrel at around 1:04 p.m. London time (8:04 a.m. ET). U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March delivery, meanwhile, were last seen up 1.8% at $60.44.
Trump’s comments come as the death toll from Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests reached at least 5,002, according to Human Rights Activists News Agency, with nearly 27,000 arrested. HRANA, a U.S.-registered nonprofit, relies on an activist network inside Iran for its reporting.
The demonstrations, which began in Tehran’s bazaar on Dec. 28, have been fueled by growing frustrations over a long-running economic crisis, particularly the government’s handling of a sharp fall in the nation’s currency and soaring prices.
A woman with her face painted with the colors of the Iranian flag during a protest outside the Spanish Parliament.
Marcos Del Mazo | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Trump appeared to back away from threats of military action against Iran last week, telling reporters that he’d been informed by “very important sources” in Tehran that “the killing has stopped.”
The U.S. president’s latest warning to Iran, however, alongside a U.S. naval buildup in the Gulf region, has put energy market participants on tenterhooks. Iran, a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market, producing more than 3 million barrels of crude a day.
Iran’s ‘only redeeming factor’
Aditya Saraswat, MENA research director at Rystad Energy, said in a research note that there were three likely scenarios for Iran’s oil flows: sustaining the status quo, making progress in negotiations with the Trump administration, or preparing for regime change sparked by U.S. intervention.
“Iran’s familiar tactics, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, banking on its trade with China and threatening nuclear escalation, are still on the table, yet must be weighed by their own potential for backfiring on the regime,” Saraswat said Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.
Iranian Navy soldiers at an armed speed boat in Persian Gulf near the strait of Hormuz about 1320km (820 miles) south of Tehran, April 30, 2019.
Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Blocking the waterway, even temporarily, can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and cause significant supply delays.
For Iran, Saraswat said, the “only redeeming factor” is China’s role as a key driver of export revenues.
“As it stands, China accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, with even a portion of cargoes booked for ‘unknown’ destinations ending up in China. Although the current export model looks feasible in the near term, its sustainability is becoming more conditional,” he added.
A ‘well supplied’ market
Energy analysts told CNBC last week that market participants were braced for further price swings amid heightened geopolitical tensions, saying a U.S. military strike was unlikely to materially affect Iranian oil production.
“Material interruptions to Iranian oil production would boost prices, although the impact would still be limited given global market oversupply,” analysts at Fitch Ratings said Jan. 16.
Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Wednesday, Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi oil firm Aramco, also said the energy sector has been “very resilient in terms of managing any volatility that could happen.”
Nasser said the market is “well supplied,” when asked about the risk of disruption to Iranian oil supplies.
“If you look at the last decade and how many disruptions we had, the market continued to be well supplied because the sources are distributed also,” he added.
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