Crypto’s ‘age of speculation’ is over, says Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz

Throughout its history, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been subject to significant price fluctuations, whether that’s due to larger macro factors impacting all asset classes or during “crypto winters” tied to industry concerns.

But with a crypto-friendly Trump administration and expectations for passage of a cryptocurrency market structure bill, many onlookers expected another bull run in digital assets to start 2026. However, it’s been the exact opposite. Bitcoin is down more than 21% so far this year, and it fell to $60,062.00 last week — its lowest level in roughly 16 months. That marked a drop of nearly 50% from its record back in October 2025.

What is driving this latest decline? Rather than a single event, Galaxy founder and CEO Mike Novogratz said at the CNBC Digital Finance Forum on Tuesday in New York City that it’s a reflection of a larger industry shift. When bitcoin fell 22% in less than a day back in November 2022 following the collapse of FTX, there was a “breakdown in trust,” Novogratz told CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos at the event. “This time, there’s no smoking gun,” he said. “You look around like, what happened?”

Novogratz did note the wipeout that occurred in October 2025 as a significant event, when more than 1.6 million traders suffered a combined $19.37 billion erasure of leveraged positions over a 24-hour period, a situation that he said, “wiped out a lot of retail and market makers” and put plenty of pressure on prices.

“Crypto is all about narratives, it’s about stories,” he said. “Those stories take a while to build and you’re pulling people in … so when you wipe out a lot of those people, Humpty Dumpty doesn’t get put back together right away,” he said.

But Novogratz also sees something more lasting he expects to come out of the current downturn, saying the recent era of crypto investing, “the age of speculation,” will be phased out going forward as the crypto industry has brought in “institutions where people have a different risk tolerance.”

“Retail people don’t get into crypto because they want to make 11% annualized,” he said. “They get in because they want to make 30 to one, eight to one, 10 to one.”

Some traders will always speculate, Novogratz says, but overall, “it’s going to be transposed or replaced by us using these same rails, these crypto rails, to bring banking [and] financial services to the whole world. And so, it’s going to be real world assets with much lower returns.”

He also pointed to tokenized stocks as assets that will have “a different return profile.”

Sigalos asked Novogratz if the eventual passage of the CLARITY Act could be a catalyst for the industry, with the stall in the crypto market structure bill’s momentum on Capitol Hill at least a short-term headwind. He is confident a crypto market structure bill will eventually become law.

“I talked to [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer two nights ago and he said ‘We’re going to pass the goddamn CLARITY Act,'” Novogratz said. “The Democrats want to pass the act, and the Republicans want to.”

Novogratz said the crypto industry needs the bill for “a lot of reasons,” but notably, “We need it for spirit back in the crypto market.”