Meta Q2 earnings call mentions Kalshi market odds

Meta is set to report earnings after the market close Wednesday, and traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the Instagram parent will use its conference call to highlight its Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses and push into the cloud market, while steering clear of social media policy debates. 

In a “mentions market” — where speculators on Kalshi are asked to place trades on whether specific words will be used during a call or speech — for the Meta earnings call, traders place 91% odds that the hyperscaler’s management will say the word “cloud.”

Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Meta was developing a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to raw computing power. 

Speculators are only a little less certain that Meta on the call will say “Ray-Ban,” its smart glasses partner, giving it a 74% chance. Last month, Meta debuted a new smart glasses model at a lower price, developed with Ray-Ban parent EssilorLuxottica.

Traders think there’s a 61% chance Meta will discuss its chips by using the word “silicon.”

Odds that Meta mentions “Hyperion,” the name of its data center project in rural Louisiana stand at just 25%.   

And don’t expect Meta to discuss social media policy either.

While the U.K. has become the latest country to pursue bans on children using social media, traders think there’s only a 15% chance Meta mentions “age verification.” 

Traders think there’s just a 20% chance Meta uses the terms “prediction market” or “Kalshi.” Reports in June revealed Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg directed staff to build a prediction market platform, and NPR reported later the same month that Meta at one point was in talks to acquire Kalshi. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.