Trump tariff plan threatens to make Modelo more expensive

Shares of Constellation Brands fell 3.5% on Tuesday after President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to place a 25% tariff on Mexican imports once he’s inaugurated.

Constellation imports all of its beer from Mexico, including Modelo and Corona. Beer accounted for 86% of Constellation’s sales in the first half of its fiscal year.

Shares of Constellation have fallen more than 3% this year, including Tuesday’s move. The brewer has a market cap of about $42 billion.

If implemented, Trump’s proposed tariff would raise Constellation Brands’ cost of goods sold by roughly 16%, according to a research note from Wells Fargo Securities analyst Chris Carey published on Tuesday.

To offset the tariffs, Constellation would likely raise prices. The brewer has some pricing power, even with inflation-weary consumers. Last year, Modelo Especial overtook Bud Light as the bestselling beer in the U.S.

It’s unlikely that Constellation would move its beer production out of Mexico. Thanks to an antitrust settlement between Anheuser-Busch InBev, Grupo Modelo and the Department of Justice in 2013, AB InBev had to sell Modelo’s U.S. business to Constellation. That agreement requires Constellation to produce those beer brands where AB InBev makes them, according to a research note from Roth MKM analyst Bill Kirk.

In recent years, Constellation has spent billions of dollars to expand its Mexican production capacity.

It’s unclear if Trump will actually enact his planned tariffs. In his previous term, he proposed a 5% tariff on Mexican imports, with plans to escalate the levies up to 25%, but those tariffs weren’t implemented.

In 2020, Trump signed a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada into law.

In the Monday night post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump also threatened to implement an additional 10% tariff on goods from China and a 25% levy on Canadian imports.

Shares of automakers, including General Motors and Stellantis, were also trading lower on Tuesday on tariff fears.